Champions League final predictions: Jones Knows previews Liverpool vs Real Madrid | football news

Targeting the Champions League final, our tipster Jones Knows has worked with Sky Bet to create a 9/2 RequestABet that’s cards, corners and shots to think about.

The Outright Market: Real like Chaos but Liverpool love it!

From what I’ve seen with my own eyes this season and what the performance metrics show, Liverpool will win the Champions League.

But how much of the Real Madrid factor do we have to equate with the analysis of who will take the title? Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been largely dominated in all three knockout games against PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City. In those six games, they lost total shots 67-110, shots on target 26-40 and corner count 15-39.

Of course, many will point to the important statistic of the goals scored in their favor in the six games 15-12, but a little look at the numbers of expected goals – calculating the quality of chances created – shows us that Real in these Lost games xG battle with Chelsea and Manchester City wasted 10 big chances defined by Opta between them.

But here is Real Madrid. Into another Champions League final knowing they’ve won the last seven.

Their ability to play in big moments of the game and not panic when the competition heats up makes them a very dangerous opponent for Liverpool.

But they might just come across a team that competes with that winning culture that also has a penchant for breaking away from the canvas to land a knockout punch. No team in the Premier League have gained more points from lost positions this season than Liverpool (20). This team seems to have extra gear and also a penchant for extreme comebacks.

Chelsea, Manchester City and PSG aren’t used to or thriving playing against a backdrop of chaos – that’s where Real Madrid won those games at crucial points and thrived. However, Ancelotti’s team meets the kings of chaos here. Liverpool want the game to be extended and frenetic, this is where their aggressive press takes control of games.

Jurgen Klopp has also built a squad of gamechangers, all of whom are fully invested in the common good – making players of such punch and ego so happy is one of Klopp’s greatest achievements.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Liverpool give Real Madrid a taste of their own medicine by staging a comeback to win the tie in a mad goal game from behind – that can be backed at 9/1 with Sky Bet and would have ended up at the famous Istanbul meeting between the two in 2005.

The 8/15 with Sky Bet for Liverpool to lift the trophy is consistent with how I view the final and is the first pick in my RequestABet. Remember Liverpool wins the trophy and doesn’t win it in 90 minutes so we have extra time and penalties on our side. It’s Liverpool all the way for me in a situation that should be ripe for drama.

Counting cards: Liverpool in the final = low card count

Clemens Turpin
Picture:
Clement Turpin referees the Champions League final

The market expectation for this game in terms of the number of booking points displayed (10 for yellow, 25 for red) is set by Sky Bet at around 42.5.

The algorithm used to arrive at this figure will have amassed many aspects including referee Clément Turpin’s strictness, the rivalry between the two clubs, average for and against cards this season for both teams and the occasion of a champion -League Finals. This is why I’m surprised the card line is so high, as far as my counts and feel of the game go, low card counts have great value in the markets.

For starters, Turpin is a very experienced referee who enjoys talking to players and giving them a chance to stay out of his pocket. He has officiated some big, explosive encounters this season, including Real Madrid v Chelsea, West Ham v Sevilla and Rangers v Borussia Dortmund, and only averaged 2.3 cards per 90. After watching all those games he refereed them with a sensible referee of a slightly forgiving nature – but was in total control at all times.

In general there seems to be a directive from UEFA and the FA to tackle unnecessary cards being shown to players, particularly in high profile matches. It makes games flow more.

The last Europa League final between Rangers and Frankfurt produced just two maps in 90 minutes and if you add up the total number of maps in the major finals since last summer (Europa, Conference, FA Cup and Carabao) you get an average Number of cards shown 2.25 per 90.

Two of those finals were Liverpool, who are a clean side under Klopp, as evidenced by just one card featured in both the FA Cup and Carabao Cup finals.

An exceptionally low card count also accompanies this team in big games. In their two most recent Champions League finals, against Real Madrid in 2018 and Tottenham in 2019, only one card was shown in both games.

With a lot of respect between Ancelotti, Klopp and many of their key players, the chances of the game boiling over are slim. All this contributes to the fact that the prices for low cards in the game are very attractive.

The standout bet is the 8/13 with Sky Bet as there are less than 50 booking points, but those who like playing higher prizes also have options. Under 30 booking points at 11/4 is worth trying, as is the no card shown at a gargantuan 33/1 at Sky Bet. That’s a bet that would have landed in Liverpool’s three Champions League games this season, against Porto, AC Milan and Inter Milan.

Corner Machines: Back Liverpool to win this race

Liverpool have won the corner race in 45 of their 51 Premier League and Champions League games this season (88 per cent batting rate). In the four games against Manchester City and Chelsea in the knockout rounds, Real Madrid had to absorb a lot of pressure in the games and lost the corner points 30-9 on aggregate. I expect the same in terms of the game scenario, so it makes sense for Liverpool to win most corners on 4/11 to increase our best bet.

Shots fired: Matip a major threat

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It wouldn’t be a Jones Knows-inspired bet without investing in a centre-back to join the fun in some way, so it’s time to invest in an old friend. Joel Matip’s goal-scoring instinct is finally being celebrated this season as Liverpool’s threat from set pieces remains very high. He has the touch of a goal in the way he attacks set pieces from all angles and Real Madrid remain a side who have serious problems when tasked with defending balls in their box – as Chelsea showed when Antonio Rüdiger scored in the quarterfinals.

Matip has fired 12 shots in his last 11 Premier League starts and five in his last seven in the Champions League.

The 8/11 for him to have a shot at the finals is delicious. And I wouldn’t put anyone off 14/1 if Sky Bet is betting on him scoring in 90 minutes.

BEST BET: Joel Matip one or more shots in total, under 50 match booking points, Liverpool take the most corners (every 90 minutes) and Liverpool lift the trophy (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

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