The college basketball schedule has 55 games today
Those just getting into college basketball have been enjoying some good games and some interesting developments. Make sure you play to your strengths as there are so many teams and so many games every night.
Thursday brings us another solid slate in college hoops as we wait for Wild Card weekend. Keep an eye out for our staff’s archive of best bets on tonight’s NFL games and keep checking back for our VSiN YouTube Page Y Follow us on Twitter for the latest program highlights.
There are 55 games on the CBB card, along with six in the Association and a full pack of 12 on the ice. I’ve got you covered for college hoops, but Jonathan Von Tobel has The best NBA bets and Andy MacNeil has NHL Disability Tips.
Here are some thoughts on the January 12 card (DraftKings odds):
The last thing a bad offense wants to see is a defense forcing turnovers. That’s the case in this game, as Troy takes the floor as a small favorite on the road over the state of Georgia. Troy has a TO% of 22% on defense, which ranks him 42nd against Division I opponents according to Bart Torvik. Georgia State ranks 351st in eFG% on offense and 328th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Torvik. Ken Pomeroy has the Panthers down at #321.
The Panthers are just that bad offensively despite a schedule that ranks 296th according to KenPom and 335th according to Torvik. Perhaps the most underrated element of this handicap, however, is that Georgia State is a regression candidate on defense. The Panthers have limited their opponents to 50.7% FG% on Close Twos as defined by Torvik, but have allowed a 40.9% shooting percentage. That shot participation ranks 309th in the nation, but Georgia State ranks 21st in FG% defense on those shots.
Tonight the Panthers draw a Troy team that ranks 51st in FG% in Close Twos. This looks like a great place for Georgia State’s rim defense to come back down to earth a bit. Throw in an offense that ranks 359 at 3P%, 312 at 2P% and you’ll lose a higher than normal possession rate to turnovers and it looks like a great matchup for Troy’s side.
Spike: Troy -2.5
The betting market seems to have isolated New Mexico State as a team to fade right now and it’s easy to see why. The Aggies have lost all four of their WAC games and are an underdog heading to Seattle to take on the Redhawks. For a team that built a reputation as a strong major bass by efficiently eliminating opponents, this version of New Mexico State under Greg Heiar is nothing like the teams under Chris Jans.
The Aggies have allowed at least 1,069 points per possession in six straight games. Their offense has also tanked, holding to .982 PPG or lower over the past three games. Seattle is a team that takes a lot of 3-pointers and New Mexico State’s last four opponents have shot 39.3% from 3-pointers, as three of them have made double-digit 3-pointers.
Seattle’s Chris Victor looks like quite the trainer. The Redhawks went 12-11 in 2021 and 23-9 in 2022. They were 14-4 in the league and fell two points behind a very good Abilene Christian team in the WAC Tournament. It seems that these are two ships going in opposite directions. Seattle’s only losses have been to two Pac-12 teams and two strong mid-majors in Utah State and Iona. The state of New Mexico seems to be falling apart on the inside and the money is coming against it once again today.
Pick: Seattle -4
Keep an eye on Sacramento State as the season progresses. This is the first season at Sac State for head coach David Patrick, who has been an assistant at multiple programs including Saint Mary’s, LSU, TCU, Arkansas and Oklahoma. He was also the head coach at UC Riverside for three seasons and has been an assistant coach for the Australian National Team. He is a very good coach and it makes sense that the Hornets have won six of their last eight.
Patrick was also a scout for the Rockets, so he adopted the NBA’s “Rim and 3” strategy. The Hornets mostly avoid midrange jumpers, as more than 78% of their shots have been two- and three-point attempts by Torvik. Northern Colorado also ignores midrange play, but throws down a ton of 3-pointers. Sacramento State’s defensive philosophy is to get teams beyond the 3-point line, as their 28% shooting percentage against 3-pointers ranks 9th nationally.
Like what I talked about with Georgia State, Sac State fits that mold, but on offense. The Hornets rank 42nd in shooting percentage on Close Twos, but 305th in FG%. Opponents are shooting 62.7% in their two close games against 290th-ranked Northern Colorado. I see positive regression for the Hornets, particularly in the Big Sky game, where there aren’t many good defensive teams. In three Big Sky games, they’ve had 96 shot attempts, but they’re only shooting 50%. They should start to finish better and Northern Colorado ranks 320th in 2P% defense so hopefully today is the day.
Pick: Sacramento State -4
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